Archived Articles

Social security reform update - Momentum
2011/11/16
Although no official document has been released, important announcements on social security reform have been made by government officials during the course of 2011. This note provides a summary of the latest social security reform developments.
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Sygnals in February 2012 - Sygnia
2011/11/16
Greece once again dominated the headlines as it raced to secure approval for a second bail-out before its next bond repayment falls due on 20th March.
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Highlights from the medium-term budget policy statement - Momentum
2011/10/27
All inward-listed shares – foreign companies trading on the JSE – will now be classified as domestic for exchange control purposes. This means they will also be included in JSE indices going forward.
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CPI Update: Core inflation remains subdued - Investec
2011/09/22
CPI inflation for August came out lower than expected, at 5.3% y/y (5.5% y/y expected), driven by higher food and petrol prices. CPI inflation excluding food and non-alcoholic beverages, petrol and energy (core inflation) remained below the midpoint of the inflation target range, coming out at 3.8% y/y in August. The SARB will monitor it closely to gauge underlying demand driven inflationary pressures but with growth slowing, core inflation is unlikely to rise sharply in the coming months.”
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Sygnals Monthly Update - August'11 in Economics - Sygnia
2011/09/01
Four years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, panic once again gripped the financial markets as the European Union struggled to contain the sovereign debt crisis. Renewed signs of economic weakness globally and the downgrading of US debt by S&P rekindled concerns about the quality of all government debt. Amid summer holidays cut short for political leaders, social unrest in the UK, Hurricane Irene hitting the East Coast of the US and more violence in Syria and Libya, August brought back memories of the dark days of 2007.
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There is a lot in the price already - Jeremy Gardiner
2011/04/16
It is important to stress from the outset that the world is not fixed. Sure it is fixing, but there is a big difference between fixing and fixed. Growth is improving, unemployment is falling and stock markets are firm. The problem is that it remains unclear at this stage how much of that is due to quantitative easing (printing money) and unsustainably low interest rates.”
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Sygnals in March 2011 - Sygnia
2011/04/04
March reminded investors that “black swan” events do exist, and they are both unpredictable and unavoidable. The past month had a clear dichotomy to it. The concerns of the first two weeks, such as rising inflation in the wake of higher oil and food prices, the resurgence of European debt problems and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, took a backseat as the news and the aftermath of the Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear leakage dominated the headlines.
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Sygnals update on Japan - Sygnia
2011/03/23
We are all aware of the tragic events unfolding in Japan. The impact on the equity markets has been extensive, with Japan’s Nikkei bearing the brunt of the sell-off. It is important to note that events of this nature are unpredictable and difficult to factor in when making investment decisions. All the underlying asset managers in the Sygnia International Balanced Fund have exposure to Japan of varying magnitude. At this stage a lot remains unknown, including loss of human life, economic costs and the potential radiation damage. However, the current sell-off has a large element of panic built in. For instance, the impact on commodity producing countries, such as South Africa and Australia, has been severe despite the well-accepted premise that the reconstruction efforts will increase demand for commodities. We have spoken to our asset managers and most, after re-evaluating their positions at an individual stock level, are maintaining their exposure to Japan, viewing the current situation as temporary”
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Sygnals in December 2010 - Sygnia
2011/01/06
Confounding the sceptics, 2010 ended on a high note with commodities outpacing all other asset classes. This was driven largely by China’s unrelenting demand with corresponding constraints on supply as crops were ruined by Russia’s worst drought in half a century, flooding in Canada and parched fields in Kazakhstan, Europe and South America. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials gained 17.0% in 2010 in US dollar terms, while the MSCI World Index rose 12.3% and global bonds returned 3.0%, based on Citigroup World Government Bond Index.
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Exchange Control Relaxations - Breaking News
2010/12/07
The Financial Surveillance Department today issued Circulars 38 to 41 which confirmed and clarified the proposed changes announced in the Medium Term Budget. Effective today, 8 November 2010, the following will apply...
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Voluntary Disclosure Relief Program Update
2010/12/07
The second round of relief for those deliberately falling outside the South African tax and or Exchange Control net is now in full swing and started on 1 November 2010 and will close on the 31st of October next year. The South African Reserve Bank (“SARB”) promulgated Regulation 24 setting out their criteria, and more information appears on the SARB website
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Oct 2010 Performance Analysis Report - Finsolnet Retail Clients - Sygnia
2010/12/02
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Sygnals in November 2010 - Sygnia
2010/12/02
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Interest Rate Outlook: How low will SA’s CPI inflation go (on QE2)? - Investec
2010/11/11
CPI inflation, currently 3.2% y/y, is close to breaching the lower limit of the SARB’s 3-6% inflation target range. However, in the absence of further substantial effective rand strength, we do not believe it will manage to meaningfully pierce the 3.0% lower limit due to fairly significant base effects. This does not mean that the inflation target is being achieved by the ‘CPI excluding administered prices’ measure. Taking the impact of administered price increases (water tariffs, electricity tariffs, rising property rates and taxes, etc) out of the CPI calculation means that prices faced by the consumer are rising by a very low 2.6% y/y. As this measure is more reflective of demand (and other non structural drivers of inflation) it indicates more accurately both the effect that the weak recovery and rand strength is having on South Africans’ cost of living – the reason ongoing high real salary and wage agreements in South Africa are not being reflected in the CPI. Indeed, the reason the general trend of excessive pay hikes (high real increases without a concomitant rise in productivity) in South Africa is not halting the downward trend in CPI inflation is both the low weighting of services and the impact of substantial rand strength, which is also overshadowing any upward pressure in the cost make up of goods.
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Sygnals in October 2011 - Sygnia
2010/11/08
The euro zone sovereign debt crisis continued to unfold in a month marred by the death of Steve Jobs, floods in Thailand, a major earthquake in Turkey, social unrest in Greece and France, spreading of the anti-capitalism Occupy Wall Street movement and disturbing violence around the capture of former dictator Gaddafi in Libya. After ending the third quarter of 2011 at a two-year low, equity markets worldwide rallied strongly in October, boosted by confidence that European politicians had finally regained some control over the debt situation.
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Excellence in Economics - Cees Bruggemans
2010/10/11
Is there any “Excellence in Economics”? It is a question remarkably similar to the one a former chairman of mine posed whenever he got sight of me: “Prospects? ARE there any prospects?”
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Monthly Update - September 2010 - Sygnia
2010/10/01
Stock markets globally enjoyed their biggest September rally since 1939. Sentiment has been underpinned by strong company earnings, a spate of big corporate deals, poor returns from bonds with interest rates at record lows, and hopes that the US Federal Reserve will step in if growth in the US stalls. The Rand hit a three year high breaching the key R7.00/US$ level on strong foreign inflows and Wal-Mart’s interest in Massmart. However, lingering doubts and a weaker US dollar pushed the gold price above US$1 300 per ounce. Finally, the US government declared the BP leak in the Gulf of Mexico as plugged.
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Reform of Customary Law of Succession
2010/09/28
Reform of Customary Law of Succession and Regulation of Related Matters Act 11 of 2009
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Rand Prospects through 2012 - Cees Bruggemans
2010/09/28
Currency forecasting is the ultimate graveyard for good intentions. Yet we want definite views. The past year has surprised with the ‘slow’ pace of Rand progress, given the dwindling current account deficit, rising precious metal prices and robust capital inflows.
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The Next Tumultuous Asset Boom - Cees Bruggemans
2010/09/28
One does generally not talk an economic boom into existence. Instead, it needs to be coaxed, teased (if not coached) into existence. And the main South African lever has always been a preceding financial boom, invariably accompanied by easing external constraints, which equally invariably has its origins globally (never local).
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Steely Resolve - Cees Bruggemans
2010/09/28
Major central banks such as the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE are all showing steely resolve to prevent further financial lapses, boost their flagging domestic fortunes and/or prevent their currencies from losing trade advantage.
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Consultants and Actuaries - Sept 10 - ABSA
2010/09/09
The accrual dates for tax purposes of the different types of benefit payments payable by a retirement fund are dependent on the specific event giving rise to the benefit payment. When determining what the accrual date for tax purposes of such payments must be, the applicable provisions of the Income Tax Act (“ITA”) cannot be read in isolation. The relevant provisions of the Pension Funds Act (“PFA”) and the rules of the specific fund must also be taken into account.
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Sygnals Monthly Update - Sygnia
2010/05/04
April brought an abundance of shocking headlines. Tragic news of a plane crash in Russia which killed the political, military and secular elite of Poland, was quickly followed by clouds of Icelandic volcanic ash closing off European air space, a surprise announcement of the SEC filing a civil suit against Goldman Sachs and finally a major oil spill threatening the coastline of Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico.
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SARB 0.5% cut drops prime rate to 10% - Cees Bruggemans
2010/03/26
In a difficult but unanimous decision, the SARB MPC dropped interest rates by 0.5%, with prime falling to 10%, which is the lowest prime has been since 1981.
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Easing real interest rates another notch - Cees Bruggemans
2010/03/24
The argument for further SARB interest rate easing should not be of the mindless variety, simply advocating deep nominal easing in support of populist ‘easy’ money. That’s the way to ruin as other countries have shown before and our own history not devoid of such policies
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Fixed investment still sliding - Cees Bruggemans
2010/02/22
There has been a modest start to economic recovery since 3Q2009. Especially manufacturing activity, electricity output and passenger car sales have shown rising tendencies, with inventory and export rebounds prominent. But fixed investment spending has shown split personality tendencies during 2009, with still strong contributions from public infrastructure, non-residential building activity and information technology, but heavy slides in private machinery and equipment investment.
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2010 Budget Highlights
2010/02/18
Highlights of the 2010 budget speech
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Budget Speech - 2010 - Minister of Finance - Pravin Gordhan
2010/02/18
It is my privilege to present the first budget of the administration of President Zuma to this House. Last week we had the special honour of hosting former President Mandela in Parliament. He exuded his inimitable magic. He reminded us of what we have achieved in our struggle for freedom and in our democratic journey. He reminded us that South Africans are capable of extraordinary things. We are, as you also reminded us, Mr President, an extraordinary people.
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Budget 2010/2011 Tax Highlights - SARS
2010/02/18
Tax Highlights of the 2010/2011 budget.
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Budget 2010/2011 Tax Pocket Guide - SARS
2010/02/18
Tax pocket guide for the 2010/2011 tax year.
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Ekonomiese herstel begin vorm kry - Cees Bruggemans
2010/01/28
Die ekonomie het in die middel van 2009 sy laagste vlak van aktiwiteit bereik, en het sedertdien begin kop optel, hoewel nie al die groot bestedingskomponente al begin groei het of al die produksiesektore begin uitbrei het nie.
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Premium & Problems - Edition 100 - Old Mutual
2010/01/28
Premiums & Problems Article Edition is published by Old Mutual Personal Financial Advice Human Resources Division. The publication provides an information service and a forum for the discussion of problems and new developments in financial planning.
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Loveless Frigidity - Cees Bruggemans
2009/11/26
The first year of economic recovery can be frigid affairs. Too many people are still experiencing hardship (the unemployed, the overindebted, the asset-impaired, the underpaid, the cash-flow-constrained, the otherwise-challenged) while the rest is inclined to be backward-looking, daily remembering the disaster that overtook them and clobbered them hard only so very recently.
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South Africa Ends Recession - Cees Bruggemans
2009/11/25
After three quarters of negative growth, the South African economy grew by 0.9% annualized during 3Q2009, better than the consensus expectation of +0.5%. Some 55% of economic sectors (by GDP weight) drove the growth, led by manufacturing +7.6%, electricity +4%, construction +6%, government +5%, personal services +1.5% and communication +1% (quarterly annualized).
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SARB keeps rates unchanged - Cees Bruggemans
2009/11/18
SARB Governor Marcus today announced no change to interest rates, following a two day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. Though there was a tremendous change in presentation style, there was none in policy substance. The Governor presented her MPC team upfront and it was clear that wide-ranging discussions had taken place to come to the policy decision that was unanimously taken.
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Consultants and Actuaries - Oct '09 - ABSA
2009/11/11
The King III Code on Governance in South Africa was issued in September this year and will become effective from 1 March 2010. It was necessitated by the promulgation of the new Companies Act and changes in international governance trends.
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The SARB leading indicator is a many splendid thin - Cees Bruggemans
2009/11/10
The SARB leading indicator peaked at 127.2 in March 2007, thereafter declining for two years, initially gradually during 2007 but acquiring freefall proportions in 2008. This indicator hit a cyclical low of 105.3 in March 2009, thereafter rising very rapidly to 112.5 by August 2009
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Why the S&P 500 is beating the Dow in the rally - John Spence, MarketWatch
2009/10/09
he S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are commonly used to measure the performance of U.S. stocks, but the disparity in the benchmarks' returns this year during the powerful rally highlights their different approaches to tracking the market.
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Leaving Crisis and Entering Recovery Mode - Cees Bruggemans
2009/09/07
It is springtime again and a good time to be taking stock as to where we are and where we are likely to be heading. Two years ago at this time, one could be forgiven for only extrapolating good times. The economy was completing its fourth year of over 5% growth, formal employment was expanding robustly, state revenue was growing in leaps and bounds making all kinds of social spending feasible even as the national debt was steadily whittled down, and the budget was heading for surplus territory.
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SARB makes doubly sure - Cees Bruggemans
2009/08/18
The nice thing about an unpredictable central bank is that it should surprise you pleasantly at least sometimes. In June, SARB emphasized upside risks to the inflation forecast, disappointing many by not cutting interest rates further though the economy was weak and the output gap large.
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Live and let die
2009/08/11
A living will is certainly not a topic for polite conversation, but there are reasons why brokers should broach the subject with their clients.
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Consultants and Actuaries - July 09 - ABSA
2009/08/06
In the recent Supreme Court of Appeal Case of Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation Ltd v HFM Oosthuizen, the Supreme Court had to decide whether a pension fund has a discretion in terms of Section 37D of the Pension Funds Act (“the Act”) to withhold payment of pension benefits due to a member at the termination of his employment
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Pinpointing recovery - Cees Bruggemans
2009/07/21
At what point does GDP (the value of all goods and services produced in the economy, excluding inflation) stop dropping, ending recession? When does activity start rising again, heralding recovery?
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Navigating the turn as green shoots sprout - Cees Bruggemans
2009/07/14
After massive shocks savaged the economy last year, by 4Q2008 (really already 3Q2008) putting us into recession, the only question basically mattering now is whether there are yet more of these massive shocks to be absorbed shortly. For if we are, we will remain probably repressed, recessed if not depressed for much longer.
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Verbruikersvertroue glad nie so broos nie - Cees Bruggemans
2009/07/01
Daar is min twyfel oor Suid-Afrikaanse sakevertroue. Hierdie is moeilike tye. Die RMB/BER sakevertroueindeks het gedurende die 2Q2009 ’n nuwe sikliese laagtepunt van 26 bereik. Net 26 uit 100 bestuurders spreek vertroue uit. In 2007 was dit nog na aan 90.
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Interest rate outlook 2009-2010 - Cees Bruggemans
2009/06/30
With the SARB going on hold last week, the prime interest rate remaining at 11%, the question is what next. Another cut of 0.5% in August, prime falling to 10.5%? Or have we reached a bottom, prime remaining at 11% through next year, with the speculation shifting as to when the first tightening move will occur (2010-2012?).
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Incoming windfall a major new disturbance - Cees Bruggemans
2009/06/03
It is happening much earlier than expected. Commodity prices are rising and foreign capital flowing in strongly even as our current account deficit contracts, rapidly firming the Rand.
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Seeing recession out the door - Cees Bruggemans
2009/05/12
When will the recession end? It will only be confirmed long after the fact, which is normal with economic turning points, as it takes time for factual data to accumulate, finally making a convincing case that the end has indeed come
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Taylor's Rule - Cees Bruggemans
2009/05/07
Estimating where interest rates should be.
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Monitoring Progress of the Recession - Cees Bruggemans
2009/04/23
A spreadsheet monitoring the progress of the recession.
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Inflation and output gaps guiding SARB - Cees Bruggemans
2009/03/31
Many things are apparently exercising the SARB’s collective mind. Think output gaps. Global conditions. Exports and Rand. And then there are food prices (in a different universe) and many locally administered prices (apparently from a different planet)
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Having fun with the kitchen sink - Cees Bruggemans
2009/03/24
US policymakers seem to be throwing everything at the financial crisis now, including the kitchen sink. Although Congress has the power to interfere at the Fed, not least by changing personnel, the Fed does not have to ask Congress approval for its actions with the instruments at its disposal.
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Monitor Jan '09 - ABSA
2009/03/02
Monitor for Retirement Funds
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Financial Market Research 18 Feb '09 - RMB
2009/02/20
The 4Q08 GDP number, due on 24 February, is likely to show that the SA economy contracted for the first time in 10 years. The release could have a direct bearing on monetary policy with the SARB Governor, Tito Mboweni, having warned earlier this month that a significantly worse-than-expected GDP figure might prompt the SARB to call an unscheduled MPC meeting before April.
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Budget Speech 2009 - Trevor A Manuel
2009/02/12
The storm that we spoke of last year has broken, and it is more severe than anyone anticipated. Confronted with the prospect of an economic cataclysm, world leaders have announced huge supportive interventions. A transformation of the world economy is in progress, which we trust will tame the excesses of unregulated financial markets. A restructuring of global trade and incomes is underway which we hope will bring greater opportunities to the world’s poor.
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Tax Proposals 2009/10 - SARS
2009/02/12
This year’s tax proposals are intended to meet the requirements of the fiscus while supporting consumer and business confidence in the context of a weakening economy.
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Tax Pocket Guide 2009 - SARS
2009/02/12
This SARS tax pocket guide has been developed to provide a synopsis of the most important tax, duty and levy related information.
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Consultants & Actuaries - Jan '09 - ABSA
2009/02/12
In City of Johannesburg v National Fund for Municipal Workers & others, the trustees of the National Fund for Municipal Workers (“the Fund”) passed a rule amendment that purported to give them the right to veto the withdrawal of a contributing employer from participation in the Fund.
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Finsolnet Quarterly Economic Review Jan '09
2009/02/05
Although this is the most severe financial crisis since the 1929 crash, it is not expected to result in a depression and economic meltdown as it did then. South Africa is very well placed to weather the storm and investors that have preserved their capital can make money out of the crisis as depressed prices present opportunities.
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Reversion to the mean - Economist.com
2009/01/28
GREATER risk means greater reward, right? Wrong, at least over the last 25 years. As the graph shows, Treasury bonds have actually outperformed riskier asset classes over the last quarter century. That is despite the long equity bull-market from 1982 to 2000.
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Daily Economic Comment - Jan '09 - Nedbank
2009/01/12
US equities ended in the red Monday as investors booked profits following last week’s gains. Banks declined after a brokerage commented that loan losses for US commercial banks could rise up to 3% in 2010 from 1.5% in 2008/Q3.
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Will the SARB cut by 0.5% or 0.75% or 1% - Cees Bruggemans
2008/12/04
The local interest rate debate still seems to be mired in the idea of having no December cut as opposed to perhaps having a 0.5% cut. But what if the SARB is preparing a surprise for next week’s interest rate decision, joining a lengthening global queue, including the Fed, BOE, Switzerland, Sweden, probably the ECB, but also Aussie, Kiwi, India, Turkey, Hungary, and others?
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Daily Economic Comment - 1 Dec '08 - Nedbank
2008/12/01
SA’s trade deficit widened from R7.11bn in September to R9.79bn in October, against expectations for a narrowing to R6.0bn. The wider trade deficit was due to the seasonal pre-Christmas oders with imports increasing 10.66% m/m, while exports rose 7.5% m/m as the weaker rand (depreciated from R8.24/$ in September to R9.77/$ in October) raised exporters’ global price competitiveness.
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SARB leading indicators keep plunging - Cees Bruggemans
2008/11/26
A little watched economic indicator published monthly by the SARB has been signaling recession for some time. An leading indicator is a composite bundling of a dozen or so economic data series that each have a good history of leading cyclical turns in the economy by many months or even quarters, but that together give the best warning signal, going by past histories.
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Anticipating plunging CPI and prime in 2009 - Cees Bruggemans
2008/11/20
After two years of deepening hardship, in which interest rates have been increased ten times, prime rising to 15.5%, we may finally be coming to a turning of the financial cycle. Other shock absorbers have already been operational for some time, protecting the economy from the worst fallout of recent events.
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Absa Consultants & Actuaries Oct '08 - ABSA
2008/11/06
The Financial Services Laws General Amendment Act, 2008 (“the Act”) was published in the Government Gazette on 30 September 2008 and came into effect on 1 November 2008. Some of the noteworthy developments introduced by the Act are as follows:
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Monthly Currency Insights - Oct '08 - Nedbank Treasury
2008/10/20
The global financial crisis exacted a heavy toll on the rand over the past month. In last month’s Prospects we noted that the currency would remain vulnerable in the short term, given ‘the country’s dependence on capital inflows, its classification as a commodity currency and the potential for increased political tension’.
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Global Financial Crisis Update - ABSA Investments
2008/10/17
The current collapse in global markets was sparked by the failure of Bear Stearns in the United States in March this year, gaining new momentum with the collapse of Lehman Brothers on 15 September. As more bad news has spilled into the market daily, the mood among investors has become one of disbelief and a distrust of the current financial system. What has become clear is that this is not a short-term correction and its impact will be felt across the globe for quite some time to come. We are witnessing an event of historic proportions that will result in a significant change in the global financial landscape.
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Deep recession arrives - Cees Bruggemans
2008/10/15
It was a week of financial drama, with commonsense eventually prevailing as the US Congress approved the $700bn bank bailout. Even Europe started to bicker internally about its own $420bn “bank rescue fund”, following the US lead.
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The best of times, the worst of times... - ACI
2008/10/15
For the past couple of years, we have witnessed the best of times in the South African market: an unprecedented bull market offering potential to create wealth for investors. But how many investors were invested in the market for long enough to make the most of the opportunity?
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Is pension fund reform taking steps forward? - ABSA
2008/10/03
The debate in respect of the extent, nature and form of social security and retirement reform is ongoing. It is therefore too early to, with certainty, make assumptions about the areas of impact and their implications.
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Monthly Interest Rate Insights - Oct '08 - Nedbank Treasury
2008/10/03
The case for lower interest rates has suffered some setbacks over the past month. CPIX inflation has risen unexpectedly to a new record high, the rand has looked more vulnerable, the oil price is still gyrating and the Reserve Bank has sent out threatening messages.
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Recent Market Events - Coronation
2008/09/29
Global financial markets, especially in the U.S., are currently experiencing their greatest crisis in a generation. During September, the rout of financial institutions with exposure to the American and British credit markets continued, liquidity in global credit markets dried up, share markets declined modestly and policymakers were forced to announce systemic bail-out plans in an effort to restore confidence in the financial system.
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Monthly Currency Insights Sep '08 - Nedbank Treasury
2008/09/19
The rand continued to weaken against a stronger dollar over the past month, but held its own against other major currencies, performing considerably better than some of its peers. The local unit fell by 0,5% against the tradeweighted basket, by 2% against the dollar and by a significant 7% against the yen, which is has been weighed by reversing carry trades. In contrast, it rose by around 1% against both the euro and sterling, having earlier seen even stronger performance.
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Consultants & Actuaries - Aug '08 - ABSA
2008/09/09
Includes a look at The Taxation Laws Amendment Act, 2008 that was published in the Government Gazette on 22 July 2008.
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Monthly Interest Rate Insights - Sep '08 - Nedbank Treasury
2008/09/08
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep rates unchanged at its 14 August meeting, a stance that had been widely anticipated by the market and analysts alike. The market is now expecting rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of the year and then anticipates a series of cuts during 2009
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Monthly Currency Insights - Nedbank Treasury
2008/08/20
The past month can be divided into two parts. The first was characterised by continuing rand strength and the second by weakness. Overall the rand firmed marginally over the past month,
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Third time lucky as interest rates pause - Cees Bruggemans
2008/08/15
The SARB again decided to keep interest rates unchanged in August, the third time it has now done so since it started its tightening cycle way back in mid-2006.
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Visible light and its invisible companions - Cees Bruggemans
2008/08/13
Our interest rate expectations seem excessively preoccupied with the visible part of the light spectrum, namely historic inflation and its uncritical extrapolation.
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Monthly Interest Rate Insights - Aug '08 - Nedbank Treasury
2008/08/07
The market’s view of the interest rate outlook has changed radically since the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in early June. At that time there were fears that the MPC would hike by 100 basis points and that this would be followed by further action later in the year. Forward rate agreements suggested that rates would rise by a cumulative 150 basis points and that the first – and then only modest – relief would come in the second half of 2009. In the event the tightening in June was less than expected and the market is now forecasting that rates will not only remain unchanged in August, but that the first cuts will come early in 2009. The question is how well these views are founded.
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Consultants & Actuaries - Jul '08 - ABSA
2008/08/05
Transactions where a member of a fund is allowed by his employer to artificially resign from employment with the express purpose of accessing his withdrawal benefit, where after his employment is immediately reinstated by the employer, could have very serious implications for all the parties involved in such transactions...
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Overview of retirement fund industry - ABSA
2008/08/01
Pension review through the eye of your retirement fund manager.
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Social security and retirement savings reform - Willie Lategan
2008/07/30
There has recently been some unfounded speculation regarding the retirement reform that government is currently undertaking. The following information regarding the proposed reforms aims to address some of the uncertainty.
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Social Security & Retirement Reform - July '08
2008/07/24
There is no questioning that a savings culture needs to be encouraged within the SA economy, given that more than 2/3rds of the population retire without sufficient funds and are forced to rely on the State Old Age Pension. One initiative aimed at addressing this is the retirement and social security reform that is being proposed.
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Bond Views - July '08 - Investec
2008/07/23
We calculate that inflation is currently overstated by more than two percentage points, because the current data no longer accurately reflects the spending patterns of South African consumers.
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Inflation Overstated - Investec
2008/07/17
The two-year delay by Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) in implementing the rebasing and reweighting of the inflation basket is having serious implications for the economy. Calculations by Investec Asset Management have shown that the real inflation rate in the economy is probably far lower than the official inflation number.
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Some challeges facing trustees - ABSA
2008/07/10
Apart from having to compile a suitable investment strategy for their fund in this challenging investment market, trustees also face the challenge of having to comply with the numerous changes to legislation applicable to retirement funds. Over the past few years the retirement industry has experienced several legislative changes forcing trustees to adapt. One of the more complex changes that trustees are currently facing is the deduction and payment of divorce proceeds from a retirement fund.
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Asset Consultants Monitor - ABSA
2008/07/10
The annual inflation figure for May of 11.7%y/y was significantly higher than the 11.1%y/y in April. Consumer price inflation, excluding mortgage interest rates (CPIX) surged to 11.0%y/y.
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Framework for Social Security and Retirement Reform - Baron Furstenburg
2008/07/08
A slide presentation about the proposed National Social Security Savings Plan or Government Social Pension Plan.
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Recession Watch - Cees Bruggemans
2008/07/08
When reporting the FNB/BER consumer confidence results last week, it was noticeable how sensitive many people were about using the R-word (Recession). Not everyone has apparently made the jump to such a drastic deterioration in economic outlook and it wasn’t as yet the way to think or generally speak of things.
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Social Security and Retirement Reform - Baron Furstenburg
2008/07/08
The second paper about the Proposed National Social Security Savings Plan or Government Social Pension Plan
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Market Summary - 20 June 08 - RMB
2008/06/24
South Africa’s current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, widened to a record R194.6 billion in the first quarter of this year, signalling that the rand could become more vulnerable to shifts in the mood of global investors. On Thursday last week, the Reserve Bank announced that the shortfall leapt to its highest in 26 years - 9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) - as oil imports soared and dividend payments on local assets held by foreigners climbed.
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Inflation Returns - RMB
2008/06/06
The scourge of inflation is back, eroding living standards and clouding the outlook for interest rates and growth prospects. Riots have erupted in poorer countries as steep increases in basic foods like rice and corn leave many on the edge of starvation. Rattled governments are responding with...
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Coronation Update - Capital Plus and Absolute Funds
2008/05/27
Coronation recently hosted a presentation by portfolio managers, Edwin Schultz and Gavin Joubert on the short-term performance of the Capital Plus and Absolute funds. Amid the ongoing market volatility and uncertainty, we felt it important that this message should be shared with all of our clients.
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Untangling our strategic choices - Cees Bruggemans
2008/05/14
Imagine approaching the Cabinet in 2003 and coming up with the following tale. "Eh, Sirs, Ladies, things are going swimmingly, in fact so swimmingly that we should start worrying".
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Inflation Summary - Mar 08 - Alexander Forbes
2008/04/30
Inflation Summary Tables as at March 2008
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Don't get it - Cees Bruggemans
2008/04/30
It has not quite sunk in, except at the SARB. CPIX is gunning for 12.5%, once past Eskom’s 60% tariff increase. Wage earners and businesses can be expected to desperately defend their real incomes and profit margins.
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Our growing rollercoaster - Cees Bruggemans
2008/04/22
After years of relative tranquility, events have again conspired to inject instability into our economy. The SARB, in responding to this instability, is injecting some of its own.
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SARB ups by 0.5% as CPIX concern deepens - Cees Bruggemans
2008/04/17
The SARB today announced another 0.5% increase in interest rates, with prime set to increase to 15%. This is the ninth such increase since mid-2006.
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Inflation risks stiffening SARB resolve - Cees Bruggemans
2008/04/17
The SARB feels it can’t just stand there and do nothing while any number of galloping inflation dragons hijack inflation expectations, embedding them for the long-term.
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Economic Overview - March 08 - RMB
2008/04/11
2008 got off to a rocky start in terms of both economic and financial market performance. Stagflation emerged strongly as a theme as growth numbers and expectations, particularly in the developed world, lost more momentum than expected, while inflation data continued to surprise on the upside
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Interest Rate Decision
2008/04/11
The South African economy continues to respond to the less accommodative monetary policy stance. Domestic expenditure is responding to our current policy settings. Various high frequency and survey data point to the economy growing at a rate below potential, but nevertheless underpinned to some extent by strong investment expenditure by the private sector and public corporations.
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Big themes moving my cheese - Cees Bruggemans
2008/03/26
Alan Greenspan calls the current US financial implosion the biggest since WW2. Why not more ambitious? What happened in WW2 was state organized violence, and doesn't count in a private sector comparison.
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Rand Shock Absorber - Cees Bruggemans
2008/03/19
The good news is that the falling Rand is the shock absorber of the moment, shielding the economy from the fallout from the global credit and banking contagion.
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Upside features to downside stories - Cees Bruggemans
2008/03/19
But that doesn't mean all is lost, we are about to enter recession, foreigners depart wholesale, having asset fire sales, sinking the Rand, and we are going to be left holding broken glass.
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Economic Review - March 08 - Finsolnet
2008/03/17
Although equity markets declined substantially, the general consensus is that developed equity markets now offer fair value and continued investment is recommended. There also appears to be consensus that decoupling is taking place with regard to the US economic influence on the world economic scene.
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The final straw facing CPIX inflation - Cees Bruggemans
2008/03/13
The global commodity pricing front continues to bring bad news, reinforced by increasing reputation risk weighing on the Rand. But if it wasn't for the good domestic harvests following our excellent summer rains, domestic food prices would be rising already much higher than what they are.
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Taking Stock - March 08 - Jeremy Gardiner
2008/03/07
It’s still summer in Cape Town, but now that we are into March, there is definitely a slight seasonal change underway, which will finally manifest itself in cold and rain by June. Miserable weather will then follow for five months, and then just as you have finally given up hope that decent weather will ever return, spring arrives followed by another six months of sun.
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Bull & Bear - 2008 Q1 - Sanlam
2008/02/25
The Bull & Bear report collates the performance expectations of leading South African Asset Managers over the coming 12 months. Asset Managers are asked to comment on expected performance for various asset classes and index sectors; currency levels; commodity prices and the performance of selected global markets. These viewpoints are subject to change in line with changes in economic and market conditions.
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Budget 2008 - Proposals - SARS
2008/02/21
This year’s tax proposals stimulate the economy’s growth potential by reducing the tax rate on business and supporting industrial incentives. New initiatives reduce the cost of doing business by cutting red tape, especially for small businesses. Government continues to protect individuals from the effects of infl ation by adjusting personal income tax brackets and thresholds.
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Budget 2008 - Peoples Guide - National Treasurany
2008/02/21
In February of each year, the Minister of Finance announces government's spending, tax and borrowing plans for the next three years. This is called the national budget. It describes how government will raise money and how it will be spent. The national budget divides money between national departments, provinces and municipalities.
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Budget 2008 - Pocket Guide - SARS
2008/02/21
This SARS tax pocket guide has been developed to provide a synopsis of the most important tax, duty and levy related information.
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Collision course for a speeding Rand - Cees Bruggemans
2008/02/14
Perhaps difficult to accept, but the Eskom hit may be behind us, that is its unplanned chaos. All that is left is the noisy exit of those packing for Perth, and the financial market participants thinking like them.
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Stellenbosch Fixed Investment Round Table - Cees Bruggemans
2008/02/12
Eskom's need to reduce electricity supply is eroding GDP growth this year. How will this affect the fixed investment outlook? Will there be accelerated spending as people scramble to gain Eskom independency? Or will investments be cancelled? What will dominate?
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RMB Market Summary Feb 08 - RMB
2008/02/05
Last week Thursday, the SA Reserve Bank left rates unchanged for the first time in nine months, giving more weight to the rising threat to economic growth than to the country’s deteriorating short-term inflation outlook.
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December 2007 PPI - RMB
2008/02/04
PPI rose 0.5% m/m in December and accelerated to 10.3% y/y from 9.1% in November. The result was aboveconsensus (10.2% y/y) but below our forecast of 10.5% y/y.
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RMBAM House View - RMB
2008/01/31
South African’s are facing a real test of character right at the moment. But, as you would have heard countless times before from some figure of authority, if it doesn’t kill you, it’ll make you stronger.
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Taylor Rule flags rate cuts potential - Cees Bruggemans
2008/01/25
According to the simple, though ever so elegant Taylor Rule estimation shown below, there is scope for a prime interest rate today of 13%. Yet reality, as everyone indebted to the gills presumably knows, is still 14.5%.
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Market Summary 3 Dec 2007 - RMB
2007/12/10
The week ending the 30th November was largely dominated by preamble to the MPC's coming interest rate decision this week. By all accounts it seems to be a forgone conclusion and that another hike is on the cards.
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Consumer inflation Oct 07 - Nedbank
2007/12/07
October’s consumer inflation figures came out sharply above market expectations for the second consecutive month. Both headline consumer inflation and CPIX inflation rose above the 7% level
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Synopsis - Nov 07 - Elmaréne Erasmus
2007/11/20
Waars's die goeie ou dae toe ”grootmense” nog werklik volwassenes was? Die nuwe Kinderwet 38 van 2005 het op 1 Julie 2007 in werking getree. Dit beteken dat my matriekseun/-dogter nou reeds op 18 jarige ouderdom in sy/haar ”grootmens” skoene klim.
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SA Markets - Asset Class Performance - Okt 07 - JPMorgan
2007/11/14
In rand terms, South African equities (ALSI) gained 4.8% over October, compared with a loss of 2.0% for the MSCI World index. Year-to-date, the ALSI has posted a total return of 28.7%, while MSCI world equities has produced a total return of 8.2%.)
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Global Performance - Oct 07
2007/11/14
The MSCI EMF index outperformed the MSCI Developed markets over October in US dollar terms, posting a total return of 11.2% compared to 3.1%. Of the three emerging regions, Latin American equities showed the best performance, gaining 12.0% over the month, followed by Asian (11.2%) and EMEA (10.5%) markets
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RMB Market Summary Nov 07 - RMB
2007/11/06
Local markets will take their cue from the Reserve Bank's monetary policy review this week, which is likely to reinforce speculation of another interest rate hike next month. Hawkish comments from governor Tito Mboweni last week have suggested that price pressures remain a concern. The review is expected to emphasise the upside risks to inflation...
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Our Views - 4th Quarter 2007 - Investec
2007/11/05
The asset allocation view in this document is reflected in the Investec Managed Fund
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SIM Global Market Review Sep 07 - Sanlam
2007/11/01
Despite the unexpectedly severe and destabilising events
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Pension Funds and Taxation Laws Amendment Act, 2007
2007/10/29
The Pension Funds Amendment Act came into operation on 13 September 2007.
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RMB Market Summary Oct 07 - RMB
2007/10/23
Inflation is the name of the game this week, with data set to show that both consumer and factory prices quickened last month, after
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Coronation Report Sept 07 - Coronation
2007/10/15
Coronation Report as at 30 September
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Toxicity - Sep 2007 - Cees Bruggemans
2007/09/28
Subprime lending ultimately was toxic fuel for a bubbly US housing market, as well as becoming the nuclear trigger for detonating bank debt securitization and the rich worlds interbank market.
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Finsolnet Economic Review: August 2007
2007/09/17
As reported last quarter, world economic conditions are favourable. Yet, the global financial markets are now experiencing a credit crisis.
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Engulfing Contagion - Cees Bruggemans
2007/08/21
As to Known Unknowns, in the end it wasn't a US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities or a bird flu epidemic that disturbed our lives in 2007. Instead, it was an old-fashioned credit shock, American in origin, if with many new bells and whistles.
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Market Summary 30 July 2007 - RMB
2007/08/05
On Friday, the JSE's All Share index plunged 3.05%, pulled down mainly by resources and banking shares. The rand also weakened to R7.10 a dollar at close of business. South African markets were not alone...
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Ekonomiese en Mark Analise Julie 2007 - Prof Harmse
2007/07/25
Die JSE het verlede week weereens volatiel beweeg. Gedurende die eerste drie dae van die week...
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Economic & Market Analysis July 2007 - Prof Harmse
2007/07/25
The JSE once again moved quite volatile last week. During the first three days of the week...
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Finsolnet Economic Review - Second Quarter 2007
2007/07/02
The following is a summary of some of the key comments by RMB and Investec.
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Budget Tax Guide 2007/08 - SARS
2007/07/01
A guide to how the 2007/8 Budget affects you
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Ekonomiese en Mark Analise Junie 2007 - Prof Harmse
2007/06/30
Internasionale markte het in die eerste week van Junie ‘n gedaanteverwisseling ondergaan nadat tekens van hoër inflasie en laer wêreld-ekonomiese groei die markstemming negatief beïnvloed het. Gevolglik word verwag dat die proses van rentekoersstygings gaan voortduur en dus dat die oormaat likiditeit in markte sal verminder. Die plaaslike markte, wat die afgelope paar jaar deur die likiditeit bevoordeel is, sal nie die nuwe vooruitsig ontsnap nie.
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Economic & Market Analysis June 2007 - Prof Harmse
2007/06/30
A marked change in the international sentiment towards higher inflation and lower worldwide economic growth dented markets during the first week of June. A process of interest rate increases, which is set to continue, will drain international liquidity. The JSE, which is favoured by liquidity conditions, will eventually feel the pinch.
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Benchmark SA June 2007 - John Green
2007/05/29
Investec Asset Management ended the awards season on a high with a fantastic showing at the annual Financial Mail Standard & Poors Unit Trust Awards in March. These awards recognise the best performing funds and the best overall investment firms based on the S&P world wide methodology.
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Simple Rules - Cees Bruggemans
2007/05/03
In a threatening world, the main survival rule has to be defensiveness. But what about an accommodative world showing few signs of turning nasty shortly, except for mild episodic thrills and spills?
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Taking Stock - April 2007 - Jeremy Gardiner
2007/05/03
I was recently approached by someone after a presentation who said: “You are always so positive, you must be really embarrassed now.” I replied by asking him what the value of his house had done over the past three or four years. “Yes, well that has doubled”, he answered.
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SARB on Autopilot - Cees Bruggemans
2007/04/12
With the 2007-2008 CPIX inflation projection remaining within the 3%-6% target range
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Taking stock - Jeremy Gardiner
2007/02/27
Investors remain cursed by the trauma suffered during the ‘boom bust’
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Budget Review 2007/2008 - Sentinel
2007/02/21
A summary of the tax related budget proposals announced by the Minister of Finance on 21 February 2007
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Finsolnet Quarterly Review - February 2007
2007/02/20
A summary of the presentations by Allan Gray and Coronation to associates at the quarterly review of the Finsolnet investment solutions for February 2007
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